Tuesday, January 24, 2006

Another question is what the Con win signifies. Is it mere sound and fury for naught? It seems like a familiar story in Canadian politics: the liberals are in power under a successful PM who wins a few majority governments. The Liberal leader steps down, Liberal scandals and/or arrogance comes to light, the Conservatives win. It happened with Diefenbaker in 1958 and Mulroney in 1984. The only outlier is Clark in 1979, and he lasted all of nine months. Pretty much every Conservative election win since WWII has been a reaction to a change in the liberal leadership; Clark is the only exception, and that had a lot to do with Trudeau's imposition of wage and price controls, contrary to his campaign promise, and the endemic stagflation of the era. At any rate, What it doesn't seem to signify is a real and lasting shift to the right, along the lines of what happened in the US in 1980 and 1994.


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